Los precios al consumidor en México continuaron moderándose y en la segunda quincena de junio y rompieron el piso del 5 por ciento, por primera vez desde marzo de 2021, principalmente por la caída del índice no subyacente, que muestra una clara tendencia a la baja, en particular, en los energéticos.
Los analistas avizoran que la inflación mantendrá su tendencia a la baja en los siguientes meses, pero advierten de algunos riesgos, como una reversión en los precios de los energéticos, presiones en los servicios, así como en los productos agropecuarios, que podrían verse afectados por factores climáticos, además de que ven con preocupación la lentitud con la que se modera el componente subyacente.
El Inegi informó que en la segunda mitad de junio la inflación se ubicó en 4.93 por ciento, por debajo del 5.18 de la quincena previa.
El índice subyacente bajó a 6.86 por ciento, la cifra más baja en 15 meses, mientras que el componente no subyacente cayó 0.74 por ciento, su mayor baja en poco más de tres años, desde marzo del 2020.
El analista económico Alexis Milo, apuntó que la inflación cae, pero no por las razones deseadas y si Banxico es congruente le debería preocupar que la subyacente, que es la inflación estructural de la economía, se ubicó al cierre de junio en 6.89 por ciento, muy lejos del objetivo.
“Lo que explica este buen dato es la gasolina, que hizo que la inflación no subyacente fuera negativa por primera vez desde 2020; cae la inflación, pero tiene sus claroscuros”, dijo a El Financiero Bloomberg.
Analistas de Ve por Más señalaron que gran parte de la moderación en el índice inflacionario sigue debiéndose a la inflación no subyacente, ante menores precios de las materias primas energéticas y agropecuarias.
En el componente subyacente, los precios de las mercancías no alimenticias mostraron un mayor incremento; pasaron de 5.65 por ciento anual en la primera quincena de junio, a 5.75 por ciento en la segunda; los servicios subieron de 5.23 a 5.27 por ciento; la vivienda de 3.66 a 3.67, y en educación de 4.83 a 4.86 por ciento. También se observó una mayor alza en otros servicios, que pasaron de 6.63 a 6.69 por ciento.
En el componente no subyacente solo se reportó una mayor alza en frutas y verduras, de 3.67 a 4.28 por ciento anual.
No obstante, aquí destacó la caída de 7.38 por ciento en los energéticos, la mayor caída desde mayo de 2020.
Advierten riesgos
Analistas de Intercam advirtieron sobre los riesgos para la inflación en la segunda mitad del año. “La primera de ellas es que dado que la mayor parte del progreso en la inflación general proviene de la no-subyacente, una eventual reversión a la media en los precios de los energéticos hacia finales del año incidirá en presiones alcistas”, apuntaron.
Agregaron que otro riesgo es la renuencia a descender del componente subyacente, principalmente del rubro de mercancías alimenticias que no ha visto un traspaso del tipo de cambio de magnitud similar a la apreciación del peso.
Analistas de Ve por Más señalaron que las distorsiones en los procesos de formación de precios y las presiones salariales, resultantes de un prolongado y acentuado periodo inflacionario, ocasionarían que el componente de los servicios, dentro del índice subyacente, muestre renuencia a disminuir.
Añadieron que de materializarse algunos eventos climáticos podrían presionarse temporalmente los precios de los productos agropecuarios.
“Los alimentos son de mayor preocupación debido al fenómeno de El Niño, mismo que podría tener un efecto más prolongado y persistente. En particular, vemos más presiones en este rubro a partir de septiembre”, coincidieron analistas de Banorte.
Sobre la subyacente, los expertos de Banorte señalaron que “nos mantenemos cautelosos ante la fortaleza de la demanda doméstica y su potencial impacto en los bienes no comerciables y los servicios. Este último componente probablemente mantendrá presiones alcistas debido a la fortaleza del empleo”.
Precios al productor
El Índice Nacional de Precios al Productor (INPP), con petróleo y con servicios, reportó en junio una caída de 0.87 por ciento anual, lo que fue su primer descenso en ocho años, según los registros del Inegi.
Al excluir el petróleo, el INPP reportó una inflación anual de 1.13 por ciento en junio, su menor nivel desde enero del 2020.
El economista en jefe de Ve por Más, Alejandro Saldaña, sostuvo que el retroceso se da ante la menor cotización de materias primas, la reducción en costos logísticos y la apreciación del peso. “El costo de bienes destinados al consumo final se moderó de 5.79 a 5.17 por ciento, un mínimo desde septiembre de 2021″, destacó.
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